ExampleGuidancev1.0.0

The historical average used as a prediction

An asset manager builds a simple baseline model that predicts future prices by always taking the historical average, in order to test whether a more advanced model genuinely adds value. A weather service does the same by predicting tomorrow's temperature using last week's average.

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Address and citation

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Identifier: praxikon:eu:ai-act:example:example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark
Payload hash (sha256): 05e0f1687969ccded7daf22e1dacead75dc5b5c612cf355161b79738c6d7c6f2

Citation line

Praxikon, "The historical average used as a prediction", praxikon:eu:ai-act:example:example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark@1.0.0, dataset praxikon:sys:registry:dataset:ai-act-implementation-graph 2.1.0 (schema 1.4.0), effective_at 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z, known_at 2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z, sha256 05e0f1687969ccded7daf22e1dacead75dc5b5c612cf355161b79738c6d7c6f2

Version: 1.0.0
Legal time (effective_at): 8 August 2026
Knowledge time (known_at): 8 August 2026
Closed on: Not closed
Topics: examples

Review status: Placed against the official source (8 August 2026). Next check due by 4 February 2027. The check date is the knowledge date of this version; no later recheck has been recorded.

What this object links to

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The obligation this hangs off

1 of 1 shown

The object belongs to this obligation. The source line it hangs off sits there.

Source
Official fact on this object, with its locator.
- Guidelines on the definition of an AI system, C(2025) 5053 final
  Locator: Commission Guidelines C(2025) 5053 final, 29.7.2025, borderline cases under the definition in Article 3(1)
  praxikon:eu:ai-act:source:commission-ai-system-definition-guidelines
  Open official source
Via
No condition or exception recorded on this object.
Consequence
- ObligationArticle 4: AI literacy
  praxikon:eu:ai-act:obligation:article-4-ai-literacy

What this object is about

1 of 1 shown

The object is about this role. Undifferentiated: it does not follow that the duty rests on this role.

Source
Official fact on this object, with its locator.
- Guidelines on the definition of an AI system, C(2025) 5053 final
  Locator: Commission Guidelines C(2025) 5053 final, 29.7.2025, borderline cases under the definition in Article 3(1)
  praxikon:eu:ai-act:source:commission-ai-system-definition-guidelines
  Open official source
Via
No condition or exception recorded on this object.
Consequence
- ActorDeployer
  praxikon:eu:ai-act:actor:deployer

What this object states

Official fact

Attributable to a named primary source, with a locator. Where they differ, the official source prevails.

The Commission guidelines on the definition of an AI system use this case to draw the line between software that does and does not fall under the regulation. The document is non-binding.
- Locator: Commission Guidelines C(2025) 5053 final, 29.7.2025, borderline cases under the definition in Article 3(1)praxikon:eu:ai-act:source:commission-ai-system-definition-guidelinesOpen official source

Our interpretation

Our own reading. It can change without the law changing, and it is not the position of a supervisory authority.

A simple baseline you place alongside a more advanced model falls outside the definition on its performance, but that verdict says nothing about the advanced model, which you must assess separately.
- Locator: Commission Guidelines C(2025) 5053 final, 29.7.2025, borderline cases under the definition in Article 3(1)praxikon:eu:ai-act:source:commission-ai-system-definition-guidelinesOpen official source

When this applies

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When this does not apply

No exception recorded on this object.

Referring to this object

Citation block

Copy this reference into your advice, article or file. The identifier, the version and the hash keep the statement findable later, even once the dataset has moved on.

Reference

Praxikon, "The historical average used as a prediction",
praxikon:eu:ai-act:example:example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark@1.0.0,
dataset praxikon:sys:registry:dataset:ai-act-implementation-graph 2.1.0 (schema 1.4.0),
effective_at 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z, known_at 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z,
sha256 05e0f1687969ccded7daf22e1dacead75dc5b5c612cf355161b79738c6d7c6f2,
https://www.praxikon.com/en/verkenner/example/example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark
(https://www.praxikon.com/api/v1/entities?id=praxikon%3Aeu%3Aai-act%3Aexample%3Aexample-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark&effective_at=2026-08-08&known_at=2026-08-08&lang=en, accessed 2026-08-25)

Short form

praxikon:eu:ai-act:example:example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark@1.0.0 (sha256 05e0f168)

BibTeX

@misc{praxikon-eu-ai-act-example-example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark-1-0-0,
  author       = {{Praxikon}},
  title        = {The historical average used as a prediction},
  year         = {2026},
  version      = {1.0.0},
  number       = {praxikon:eu:ai-act:example:example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark},
  howpublished = {AI Act Change \& Evidence Graph, dataset 2.1.0, schema 1.4.0},
  note         = {effective_at 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z; known_at 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z; sha256 05e0f1687969ccded7daf22e1dacead75dc5b5c612cf355161b79738c6d7c6f2},
  url          = {https://www.praxikon.com/en/verkenner/example/example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark},
  urldate      = {2026-08-25},
  language     = {en}
}

CSL JSON

[
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    "id": "praxikon:eu:ai-act:example:example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark@1.0.0",
    "type": "dataset",
    "title": "The historical average used as a prediction",
    "container-title": "AI Act Change & Evidence Graph",
    "publisher": "Praxikon",
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "number": "praxikon:eu:ai-act:example:example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark",
    "URL": "https://www.praxikon.com/en/verkenner/example/example-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark",
    "language": "en",
    "issued": {
      "date-parts": [
        [
          2026,
          8,
          8
        ]
      ]
    },
    "accessed": {
      "date-parts": [
        [
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        ]
      ]
    },
    "note": "dataset praxikon:sys:registry:dataset:ai-act-implementation-graph 2.1.0; schema 1.4.0; effective_at 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z; known_at 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z; sha256 05e0f1687969ccded7daf22e1dacead75dc5b5c612cf355161b79738c6d7c6f2; retrieved_from https://www.praxikon.com/api/v1/entities?id=praxikon%3Aeu%3Aai-act%3Aexample%3Aexample-gemiddelde-als-voorspelling-benchmark&effective_at=2026-08-08&known_at=2026-08-08&lang=en; licence https://www.praxikon.com/nl/legal/terms"
  }
]

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